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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16,4x - 18,1x | 17,3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12,4x - 13,7x | 13,0x |
| Fair Value | kr124,70 - kr140,10 | kr132,40 |
| Upside | 14,3% - 28,4% | 21,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) | SCA A | OM:SCAA |
| International Paper Company | INP | DB:INP |
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 4W8 | DB:4W8 |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKA | DB:PKA |
| Holmen AB (publ) | HOLM A | OM:HOLMA |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BILLS | BATS-CHIXE:BILLS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SCA A | INP | 4W8 | PKA | HOLM A | BILLS | ||
| OM:SCAA | DB:INP | DB:4W8 | DB:PKA | OM:HOLMA | BATS-CHIXE:BILLS | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.1% | -10.7% | 16.4% | 1.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -16.8% | -16.6% | 26.2% | -3.9% | -1.9% | -0.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 60.0% | -22.9% | -13.3% | 17.5% | -17.2% | 442.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.4% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 16.4% | 5.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.8% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 17.7% | 1.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.8% | 5.2% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 4.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.7% | 4.0% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 4.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.57x | 1.80x | 1.45x | 2.23x | 2.80x | 0.74x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.7x | 18.2x | 7.8x | 10.8x | 16.7x | 6.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 31.0x | 45.2x | 11.6x | 15.4x | 24.3x | 15.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 11.6x | 24.3x | 45.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 23.5x | 64.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.4x | 17.3x | 18.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,148 | 2,148 | 2,148 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 35,255 | 37,111 | 38,966 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,364) | (5,364) | (5,364) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 29,891 | 31,747 | 33,602 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 248.7 | 248.7 | 248.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 120.19 | 127.65 | 135.11 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/SEK | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 120.19 | 127.65 | 135.11 | 109.10 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 10.2% | 17.0% | 23.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SCA A | INP | 4W8 | PKA | HOLM A | BILLS | |
| Enterprise Value | 105,796 | 34,371 | 12,532 | 19,045 | 66,811 | 32,498 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,327 | 1,156 | 129 | 843 | 1,565 | 2,142 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 1,698 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,961) | (10,328) | (5,711) | (2,803) | (5,238) | (7,506) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (15) | 0 | (1) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 92,147 | 25,199 | 6,949 | 17,157 | 64,836 | 27,134 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 702.3 | 527.9 | 301.8 | 89.3 | 157.4 | 248.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 131.20 | 47.74 | 23.03 | 192.04 | 412.00 | 109.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 131.20 | 42.68 | 20.59 | 171.70 | 412.00 | 109.10 | |
| Trading Currency | SEK | EUR | EUR | EUR | SEK | SEK | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |