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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16,8x - 18,5x | 17,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9,0x - 9,9x | 9,4x |
| Fair Value | ARS 453,32 - ARS 523,15 | ARS 488,24 |
| Upside | -36,4% - -26,6% | -31,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 |
| Ternium Argentina S.A. | TXAR | BASE:TXAR |
| Nexa Resources Perú S.A.A. | NEXAPEC1 | BVL:NEXAPEC1 |
| Mineros S.A. | MINEROS | BVC:MINEROS |
| Iron & Steel for Mines & Quarries | ISMQ | CASE:ISMQ |
| Aluar Aluminio Argentino S.A.I.C. | ALUA | BASE:ALUA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CBAV3 | TXAR | NEXAPEC1 | MINEROS | ISMQ | ALUA | ||
| BOVESPA:CBAV3 | BASE:TXAR | BVL:NEXAPEC1 | BVC:MINEROS | CASE:ISMQ | BASE:ALUA | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -0.6% | 66.3% | 27.7% | 18.7% | NM- | 86.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -30.0% | 4.5% | -0.6% | 26.0% | NM- | 131.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 199.0% | -94.0% | 122.0% | 54.7% | 215.8% | -58.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.5% | 19.0% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 50.3% | 13.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -13.5% | 24.4% | 15.0% | 24.8% | 49.2% | 9.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 5.0% | 26.7% | 26.8% | 47.4% | 16.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.5% | 0.8% | 29.0% | 29.7% | 62.6% | 9.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 0.91x | 0.36x | 0.82x | 5.18x | 2.15x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.4x | 18.8x | 0.9x | 2.3x | 7.9x | 14.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 117.0x | 1.2x | 2.8x | 8.3x | 23.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 1.2x | 7.4x | 117.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 11.8x | 28.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.8x | 17.7x | 18.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 107,923 | 107,923 | 107,923 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,810,350 | 1,905,631 | 2,000,913 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (588,291) | (588,291) | (588,291) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,222,058 | 1,317,340 | 1,412,622 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,800.0 | 2,800.0 | 2,800.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 436.45 | 470.48 | 504.51 | ||||
| FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 436.45 | 470.48 | 504.51 | 713.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -38.8% | -34.0% | -29.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CBAV3 | TXAR | NEXAPEC1 | MINEROS | ISMQ | ALUA | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,294 | (663,260) | 328 | 471 | 4,600 | 2,584,691 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 858 | 1,270,598 | 171 | 81 | 479 | 190,386 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 270 | 2,543,436 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3,288 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,043) | (268,864) | (39) | (28) | 0 | (737,824) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (227) | (4) | 3 | (0) | 0 | (44,141) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,151 | 2,881,906 | 463 | 540 | 5,080 | 1,996,400 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 651.1 | 4,517.1 | 1,271.6 | 299.7 | 976.9 | 2,800.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.84 | 638.00 | 0.36 | 1.80 | 5.20 | 713.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.84 | 638.00 | 1.30 | 7,300.00 | 5.20 | 713.00 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | ARS | PEN | COP | EGP | ARS | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |